EDDi Extra
The Globalisation of Education (Sept, 2019)
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THE GLOBALISATION OF EDUCATION
It’s only just getting started
By Dr Stephen Whitehead
If you are looking for indicators as to the future of education, look at Airbus.
Yes, I know it appears counter-intuitive to connect the European airspace company with schools and universities, but there is a link. Airbus has just forecast the number of commercial aircraft flying over our heads to DOUBLE in the next 20 years.
That means, come 2038, there will be close to 50,000 planes airborne, worldwide. And most of this expected 4.3% annual growth will occur in the Asia-Pacific region.
What does that tell you?
Well, firstly, it tells me that far from being on a back-foot, globalisation is only just getting started. Add in the looming 5G revolution, predicted to create a world of instant connectedness from things to people, and it is clear that human ‘progress’ is about to speed up even more.
Secondly, it is clear that none of this will occur without money; there is no chance of the Airbus forecast coming to reality unless there are millions more people willing to spend.
But, Airbus predict not only that the middle classes will be spending, but that they’ll have doubled in number to almost 6 billion people. In 2012, the global middle class was 2 billion, mostly Europeans and Americans. Today the number is 3 billion.
The dramatic rise to 6 billion will mostly come from Asia. Over two thirds of the global middle class, by 2038, will be Asian.
Setting aside the question as to how much income defines a person as middle class, together with the impact of all this on the environment, what we are seeing here is a bigger change in humankind’s economic and social condition than ever through history, a change that will occur in just one generation.
Mix together expectations, travel, opportunity, aspirations, money, with advanced technology, and what do you have? You have what we have today only doubled. Personally, I find that difficult to get my head around, but then I’ll be 90 come 2038, so it won’t be my responsibility, or problem.
But where I see the biggest impact is in the field of education.
Being ‘middle class’ is not simply about one’s average monthly earnings, it is also about cultural capital, language, communication, entrepreneurialism, expectations and opportunity. All of these are fed more by education than any single factor. And the middle classes realise this, which is why the number of English medium international schools is now touching 10,000 and rising at 6% a year. At this rate of increase, there will be at least 25,000 international schools by 2038, the majority of these in Asia.
And yes, all this will occur despite a simultaneous demographic shift which will see, for example, China’s population start its inexorable decline, while the number of those aged over 60 rises to at least a third of the Asian population.
You may well ask, “won’t the Asian state education systems handle this growth in high quality education demand from their middle-class populations?” And my answer is simply to respond with another question; “if you were Asian middle class, would you trust your state system to provide the education you want for your children, or would you be prepared to pay for the best private education you can afford?”
Global education companies such as GEMS, Nord Anglia, Cognita, together with top-branded international schools such as Dulwich, Harrow, Westminster, Brighton, Repton, Shrewsbury and London Collegiate, know the answer to that question. Which is why they are all rapidly expanding.
The average middle-class Asian parent is going to spend a lot more money on his or her child’s education than they are flying off to a holiday in Thailand, though ideally, they’ll want to do both.
So, I leave you with this thought; you may well look around you and feel a little overwhelmed at the speed of change.
Believe me, it is only just getting started.
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