Rock n’ Roll
But not for poorer countries...
The Covid pandemic may have cut a deadly swathe through some of the richest countries on earth, but as World War I British soldiers sang as they marched to the trenches:
“It’s the poor wot gets the blame. It’s the rich wot gets the gravy. Ain’t it all a bleedin’ shame”.
Not only have the poor been blamed for the virus – ‘poor Chinese people eat bats’ – the virus is ensuring they are going to be left even further behind the rich when it comes to education.
According to the latest UNESCO report on international education, two-thirds of low and lower-middle income countries have cut their education budgets since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, it is highly likely that the cuts already made will get larger as the financial impact of the pandemic sweeps across poorer countries in Africa and Asia especially.
This is catastrophic for any family stuck on the lower rungs of society and desperate to crawl upwards.
It is an especially big blow to the lower middle classes, that group which provides much of the entrepreneurial impetus and social aspiration in poorer societies.
It is all too easy for us international educationalists to become fixated on the growth, wealth and opportunities afforded to our students in our wonderful, and highly expensive, independent and international schools. In reality though, we are living on a different planet compared to most of the world’s population and especially those living in poor countries.
This gap is not just between the rich independent schools and state schools, it is between rich and poor nations.
By way of example, only a third of upper-middle and high-income countries have reduced their education budgets since the start of pandemic, thereby accelerating a trend towards greater global educational inequality over the coming decades:
‘Disparities in spending on education per child or young person between rich and poor countries are large and have continued to widen.’
Many millions of children will not even be receiving a basic education over the coming decades.
Even before the pandemic, 53% of ten-year-olds in low and middle-income countries were unable to read and understand short age-appropriate text (The World Bank, 2019). UNESCO now predict this rise to 63% as a result of school closures in the wake of the virus.
One also has to feel a lot of sympathy for the plight of households in poorer countries, given that before the pandemic they were already contributing much more to education than households in richer countries, typically around 3% of household spending compared to only 0.7% of household spending in high-income countries.
Staggeringly, the data for Ethiopia shows that 72% of total spending by households is on Primary and Secondary education – and that money is going into the state system, not independent schools.
UNESCO predict that poverty rates will rise for the first time since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, forecasting that as many as 93 million additional people will fall into poverty by the end of 2021, most in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa where education systems rely heavily on household financial contributions.
So, with education cuts of 65% in low and lower-middle income countries compared to only 33% in high and upper-middle-income countries, which countries, currently attracting high investment in international schools, are starting to reduce state educational expenditure?
Mexico
Thailand
South Africa
Jordan
Indonesia
You don't need to be an economist to recognise that this creates even more opportunities for private investment in education in these countries.
For over a decade, global state spending on education increased continuously, resulting in a slow but discernible closing of the gap in education provision between rich and poor countries. That rise has now stopped in most poorer countries, with but with most high and upper-middle-income countries continuing to maintain or increase educational funding.
One very clear outcome of this downward trend in state education provision will be an increasing demand by middle income households for private education and especially some type of international educational experience for their children.
Looks like the rich will have to step up to save the poor – then everyone can enjoy a bit of rock n’ roll.
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